Apprently not, though. The Patriots begin the season on Monday night in spanking new Gillette Stadium with a rematch against the Steelers–and with the Pats a surprising two-and-a-half-point underdog. It marks the first time anyone can remember the defending Super Bowl champion opening up at home as an underdog. In fact, in recent seasons, NFL champs like the Packers, the Broncos, the Rams and the Ravens have opened up their title defense as anywhere from a 7- to 17-point favorite. And the oddsmakers indicate that, barring some surprising developments in the NFL’s first week, New England will be a “dog” again the second week of the season when it plays the Jets in New York.

Go figure. From New York to Las Vegas, the experts are lining up to once again dis the Pats. In The New York Times “Kickoff” section last weekend, four putative NFL experts made their predictions, and not one chose the Patriots to win even their division. (Three fell for the hometown hype and backed the Jets, the fourth picked the Miami Dolphins.) In Vegas, a handful of teams boast lower Super Bowl odds than New England, including the Indianapolis Colts who were a woeful 6-10 last year. That’s a remarkable vote of confidence in new coach Tony Dungy. It’s a little unclear to me why, off his Tampa Bay experience, bettors believe that he’s more likely to fix Indy’s porous defense than he is to screw up their powerhouse offense.

The Vegas over-under on the number of wins for the Pats–11-5 last year with victories in their final nine games–is just 8 and a half. That means a mediocre 9-7 record would make winners of Pats backers. “I can see them right around 8-8, I certainly don’t see them any better than 9-7,” says Jason Been, an oddsmaker with Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which supplies the line to the majority of the sports books in town. Been points to New England’s strong division, its tougher overall schedule and all the intangibles that making defending so much more difficult than winning that first championship. “They’re not going to sneak up on anybody this time around,” says Been. “Just the opposite. Every single week everyone will be gunning for the Super Bowl champs.”

The Vegas line, of course, only partially reflects what the oddsmakers think. It is meant to reflect more accurately what the bettors think, dividing money equally on both sides of the line. Perhaps New Englanders, reflecting the Puritan ethic that once prevailed, don’t wager as much as the average American. And that average American and NFL fan hasn’t yet fully embraced the Pats. Oh they embraced their fairytale season as entertainment; NFL Films’s chronicle of the Pats championship season was its best-selling video in history. But there’s this sense out there that if you just watch the video enough times, the Rams will surely tromp the Patriots just as everyone expected them to do.

Recent history is, of course, ganging up on the Pats, too. In the last few years, bettors have been burned by defending champs like the Rams and Ravens while longshots stole to the fore. The NFL appears to be sports’ biggest crapshoot so a lot of bettors are eschewing favorites while looking for the team that can forge that stardust season. Been says the Patriots haven’t yet achieved the stature of a national team. The Colts, for example, have big-name studs at all three glamour positions on offense–Peyton Manning at quarterback, Edgerin James at running back and Marvin Harrison at wideout.

Apparently, Tom Brady, Antwain Smith and Troy Brown lack luster in the eyes of fans. In the eyes of the league as well. No Super Bowl champion ever had as few players, two (Brady and Lawyer Milloy), selected to play in the Pro Bowl. And the word sophomore slump is bandied about whenever Brady’s name comes up. (Technically, he is an NFL junior, though he didn’t play his rookie year.) No one in Vegas would be terribly surprised if Brady’s season resembled fellow Michigan alum Brian Griese’s troubled 2001 year with Denver.

I beg to differ. And while I would never counsel any man to make a wager, you may possibly recall me fondly as the man who advised you twice last year–with the Pats against Pittsburgh and again against St. Louis–that we were witnessing one of the most extraordinary overlays and, thus, investment opportunities in sporting history. (And my Super Bowl prediction, Pats 27-Rams 24, may have been the single greatest divining act of my life, at least since I divined I wasn’t cut out for law school.) Vegas still hasn’t caught on to the Patriots. So I repeat that the Patriots are very much for real. Monday night may be the last time, though, it can be just our little secret.

NFL PREDICTIONS

The Pats may be for real. I’m a little sketchier on who else may be. But here are my picks for the regular season. I’ll tell you my pick for the Super Bowl when I have a clue who’s in it:

NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC North: Chicago Bears

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

NFC West: St. Louis Rams

Wild Cards: San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers

AFC East: New England Patriots

AFC North: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC South: Tennessee Titans

AFC West: Oakland Raiders

Wild Cards: Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos