Some big names have changed uniforms, but the game remains the same. Coaches and quarterbacks are the superstars, but it’s defense that wins the Super Bowl. Here’s all you need to know to belly up to the bar for the Jets-Redskins season kickoff Thursday night.
Bucing the Trend
No Super Bowl champion has repeated since Denver back in ‘97. But Tampa Bay has all the defensive might, including Anthony McFarland back from injury alongside Warren Sapp and Simeon Rice, to stay on top. The “Monday Night Football” opener, with the Bucs visiting Philly’s new Lincoln Financial Stadium should be an NFC championship preview.
Tuna Melt
Bill Parcells is back, facing his toughest rehab job yet with Dallas. The heat will be on when the Big Tuna faces all three of his former teams–the Giants, Jets and Patriots. The New Yorkers host him early, New England not until Nov. 16. You never want to see a Parcells-coached team come to town in the second half of the season.
If a Running Back Falls in the Desert and Nobody Sees Him …
After a lifetime in Dallas, the NFL’s all-time rushing leader, Emmitt Smith, joins the league’s lost tribe, Arizona. At least we’ll pay attention when he goes home to play the Cowboys on Oct. 5.
Who’s the Next Vick-tim?
Last year Donavan McNabb was the most notable quarterback to go down. This season the NFL’s designated superstar-in-waiting, Michael Vick, is already out for at least six weeks. (Sadly, bet the over on that.) The Jets’ Chad Pennington is out much longer. And the 49ers are fretting about Jeff Garcia’s creaky back. How amazing is Brett Favre’s 190 consecutive starts?
Backup Power
Long before the August blackout, we knew about the need for backup power on the grid. Remember Tom Brady. So if you like your team’s chances for the Super Bowl, take a gander at your No. 2 QB. The Rams are thrilled that Kurt Warner is back and healthy, but they’re almost as happy to have Marc Bulger behind him. But there is also a new countertrend this season. One quarter of the teams are prepared to start the season without a third-string quarterback on the bench. Apparently they figure they can’t be that unlucky during a single game–and that all those third QBs floating around are interchangeable parts.
Lewis and Palmer
This year has witnessed a national celebration of Lewis and Clark. Can another Lewis go the distance with his chosen partner? Cincinnati has been the NFL’s black hole. But new Bengals coach Marvin Lewis and quarterback Carson Palmer, the Heisman Trophy winner and No. 1 overall pick in the 2003 draft, are the team’s best hope yet to dig its way out. Just don’t expect too much right away. How long Lewis can resist fan pressure to insert Palmer into the starting lineup? Two less-touted rookie quarterbacks, Kyle Boller with Baltimore and Byron Leftwich with Jacksonville, could start sooner and have more of impact than Palmer this season.
Coaches in the Line of Fire
It might be easier to list who isn’t. But some coaches are under more pressure than others. Mike Holmgren better start winning now in Seattle. And Dave Wannstedt better usher Miami back into the playoffs. But nobody needs an upgrade more than the University of Florida’s gift to the NFL, Steve Spurrier. Before last season, Redskins owner Dan Snyder called it a love affair with his new coach. But another losing season in our football-mad capital and love will mean having to say he’s sorry.
Nice Guys Finish …
Everybody felt nice-guy coach Tony Dungy got the shaft in Tampa after his team’s ignominious playoff exit in Philly two seasons back. After all, who could have done better with that anemic offense? Then the Bucs won it all, while Dungy’s Colts with stud Peyton Manning at the helm got cold-cocked by the Jets 41-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Another notable flop and Dungy won’t exit to the same sympathetic chorus.
Vinnie, Vidi, Vici?
Jets coach Herman Edwards was worried about how he’d find a way to get backup QB Vinnie Testaverde the 442 passing yards he needed to surpass the 40,000-yard milestone. No wonder Jets players put it on the line for their coach. But Edwards now has bigger worries: with Chad Pennington out, Vinnie will start. He will get his yardage easily, but could bury the Jets, already hurt by free-agent departures–four alone to the Redskins, who will line up against them in tomorrow’s opener.
Can You Go Home Again?
Only a Michigander would be happy to trade in San Francisco for Detroit (though $25 million can paper over some of the Motor City’s drawbacks). Still, Steve Mariucci’s timing could prove excellent. With the contracts of QB Jeff Garcia and superstar receiver Terrell Owens up after this season, the 49ers could be headed downhill. The Lions have nowhere to go but up and, with young Joey Harrington throwing to stud rookie Charles Rogers could get there fast.
A Shock to the System
Jeremy Shockey’s big mouth (most recently, calling Bill Parcells a “homo”) has gotten him into trouble regularly. But the Giants should be far more concerned with his lifestyle. No New York rookie has proclaimed “I love the night life” with such fervor since Joe Namath’s heyday. Until it takes its toll, though, Shockey at tight end is an awesome weapon.
Get On My Back
Which running back might carry his team through the playoffs? It’s probably a couple seasons too late for the Jets’ Curtis Martin. The Chiefs’ Priest Holmes could bear the load if he is fully recovered from his hip injury. Miami’s Ricky Williams could, too, if his big, powerful legs deliver more than his tiny, fumbling hands give away. The consensus pick would likely be St. Louis do-it-all Marshall Faulk. But San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson is six years younger, hasn’t been slowed by injuries and last season rushed for 700 more yards and caught just as many passes as Faulk.
How Do You Defend This Move?
In linebacker Roosevelt Colvin, who had double-digit sacks the past two seasons with Chicago, Patriots coach Bill Belichick finally has the lethal weapon to show off his defensive wizardry. But instead this week, Belichick found himself on the defensive, trying to explain–to both the team and its fans–his stunning decision to release team captain and Pro Bowl safety Lawyer Milloy.
Out of Nowhere
Every season the NFL crapshoot always kicks up some bottom-dweller as a surprise. Minnesota has been slow to bounce back since the tragic death of Korey Stringer in training camp two years ago. But the old black-and-blue division, minus Tampa Bay, may now be the NFL doormat and the Vikes have weapons. How far they go depends on whether their supertalented wideout Randy Moss has, finally, grown up. Look for Baltimore to return to the playoff fray and Carolina, riding its defense, to make a big leap, too.
Fearless Predictions
AFC East : New England Patriots
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
AFC South: Tennessee Titans
AFC West: Oakland Raiders
AFC Wild Card: Kansas City Chiefs
AFC Wild Card: Indianapolis Colts
AFC Champ: Tennessee
NFC East: Philadelphia Eagles
NFC North: Minnesota Vikings
NFC South: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West: St. Louis Rams
NFC Wild Card: New York Giants
NFC Wild Card: Carolina Panthers
NFC Champ: Tampa Bay
Super Bowl Winner: Tampa Bay
