That was certainly the case in Prague today where Vancouver completed its long Olympic march by winning the International Olympic Committee vote for the 2010 Winter Games. The nominal losers were runners-up Salzburg, Austria and Pyeongchang, South Korea. But, in fact, the biggest loser, though nobody will go so far as to admit it, was our shining New York, New York, and its bold dream of hosting the 2012 Olympics.

You’re never going to hear that from New York’s own 2012 committee nor from IOC officials, who won’t actually award those 2012 Games for another two years. What you will hear from them is that 2010 has absolutely nothing to do with 2012. That Vancouver’s victory effectively eliminated one of New York’s most feared rivals, Toronto, the runner-up to Beijing for 2008, from the 2012 race. And that nothing prohibits staging back-to-back Games on the same continent. You will hear that Europe has hosted them in the past, in fact three in a row with Albertville, Barcelona and Lillehammer in the early ’90s, and will have them again with Athens next summer and Turin, Italy, in 2006. You will hear how Vancouver and New York are, in fact, much more distant from each other than are Athens and Turin.

What you won’t hear is the truth: that the IOC is dead-set against back-to-back Olympics in North America. That everybody can tell the difference between a Norwegian and a Spaniard or between a Greek and an Italian. But a Canadian and an American? Canada, be it ever so separate, is viewed around the world as an extension of–and essentially indistinguishable from–American English-speaking culture. (They don’t count nicer as a significant difference.) Moreover, in an IOC beset by scandal in recent years, appearances are almost as important as reality. Having just delivered one perfect time zone Olympics to NBC for its recent $2 billion buy, a New York Games in 2012 would look like the network bought more than broadcast rights for its considerable monies.

What you won’t hear is an even more painful truth: that the IOC right now really doesn’t want to stage another Games in the United States. And that using the “back-to-back” excuse is the easiest, politest way to do that. The real obstacle to any American Games is a tale of three cities, none of them New York, that have left many IOC delegates longing for payback.

Atlanta: Atlanta is long gone, but definitely not forgotten. The ‘96 Olympics is unhappily recalled as the worst-ever of the modern Games, an eternal blemish on the IOC record. Not only was the organization of the Games inept, with failures in everything from transportation to computers, but also it was crass to the max–the glorious Olympics reinterpreted by a bunch of greedheads as an urban flea market.

Salt Lake City: The Salt Lake Games last year were a nice antidote to the Atlanta memory–well organized, tasteful and respectful of Olympic traditions. Unfortunately, that isn’t the salient recollection out of Salt Lake. To the IOC, Salt Lake will always mean the mortifying bribery scandal. And in its eyes, it was an American scandal first and foremost. The Americans dangled the dollars, snared some poor fish, then hung them out to dry with their sanctimonious finger-pointing and demands for further investigations and IOC reform. A number of IOC delegates lost their posts in that scandal and, knaves though they may have been, they still have friends in high places.

Baghdad: The United States may no longer be in the throes of euphoria over our Iraq military operation. But we still don’t appear to have a clue about what the rest of the world thinks. Or if we do, we Clark Gable it–“frankly my dear, I don’t give a damn.” We’ll just stop drinking French wine and see who gets hurts the most. Most of the rest of the world, however, still views the operation and the aftermath as quintessential American arrogance. They look forward to imposing small defeats on the United States whenever they can. NYC 2012 is a perfect opportunity. And there are not enough British, Israeli, Spanish and Polish IOC delegates to stem the tide.

The final unhappy truth for New York is that the IOC simply doesn’t need the Big Apple right now. A couple of decades ago, the Games went begging for bidders. No longer. The Olympics are now perceived around the world as hugely desirable enterprises, an ideal path to rebuilding, re-energizing and recasting cities. As a result, 2012 has a long and glittery roster of bidders, including cities like London, Paris and Madrid that rival New York in terms of international stature.

I admit to some bias in this matter. A reporter’s worst nightmare is an Olympics in the city that all his bosses call home. I have a clear vision of what that might mean. I know they will be rapturous in the morning when they discover the beauty of rhythmic gymnastics played out in Central Park. Irate in the afternoon when Olympic gridlock blocks their path to their Pilates classes. And demanding in the evening when, at the very last second, it occurs to them that they’d love a pair of tickets (“or maybe five and we’ll bring the kids”) to the women’s gymnastics final.

Still, they are my friends and I wish them their Olympics–eventually. Indeed 2016, a time by which I hope to be out to pasture on a Cape Cod beach, would be just about perfect. So in the interests of mending fences with NYC 2012 (and possibly my bosses), I offer the winning formula for 2016. It is simple. Keep fighting for 2012 so that you lose impressively and then, above all, graciously. After hailing the winner, reaffirm New York City’s commitment to the Olympic dream and keep right on pushing toward 2016. All tides eventually turn. The IOC may not like America very much right now, but everybody loves New York. Played right, the New York City Games could turn out to be a dream delayed, not a dream denied.