Roh may not be flying high for much longer. Uri is home to a broad spectrum of political ideologies, from leftist radicals to mainstream conservatives, and fissures are expected to start forming among its members now that they must take up the tasks of governance. The thinness of the party’s two-seat majority means even minor spats could negate its influence. Even more worrisome for Roh is the fact that the bulk of the party is actually far more liberal than he is. Indeed, a substantial wing of Uri is sympathetic to the Democratic Labor Party, South Korea’s most left-leaning political group, which picked up 10 seats to enter the National Assembly for the first time. Roh cannot assume that he will be able to garner the votes he will need to implement his agenda, and he may in fact find himself siding with more conservative political groups when it comes to certain key issues like Iraq and the economy. “While most conservative parties [in South Korea] fail because of corruption,” says Hahm Sung Deuk of Korea University, “liberal parties fail because of internal division.”
The next deployment of South Korean troops to Iraq will be the first test. Roh has already promised Washington that he will send 3,000 troops to Iraq next month, but South Koreans are increasingly reluctant to follow through. Many Uri loyalists are vehemently against the deployment, and the DLP plans to present a resolution for the withdrawal of the 600 Korean troops already there. The Pentagon’s announcement last week that it will redeploy 3,600 U.S. troops from the DMZ to Iraq has only heightened opposition. “Civic groups and young supporters will demand Roh not send troops now that U.S. troops are reduced in our homeland,” says Hong Sung Gul at Kookmin University in Seoul.
Division over economic policy could be even more costly. Business circles are already expressing deep concern about leftist policy proposals. Many Uri members agree with the DLP that economic growth without more equal and fair distribution of wealth is meaningless. So they are demanding tougher regulations on the chaebols, Korea’s family-run conglomerates, for the sake of small businesses and workers. This comes at a time when the chaebols are the only engine of growth for the Korean economy. “The president was given a second chance to run the country, but there will not be a third chance,” says Hahm. “Economic performance will largely determine his future presidency.” Roh’s good times may not last all that long.
